My soccer predictions weren’t very good, as I had a small bet with ADale that DC United would prevail, but hopefully my Dem picks will be better. Back in August, at APSA, Prof Medvic asked all of us in the campaign working group for our predictions. I went with 5 in the Senate and 21 in the House. I think those look a bit conservative now, but I’ll stick with them.
Senate: Dems pick up Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Montana.
House: Dems pick up AZ-08, CO-07, CT-05, FL-13, IA-01, IL-06, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, KY-03, NC-11, NM-01, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29, OH-15, OH-18, PA-06, PA-10, TX-22, and WI-08. Hello, Speaker Pelosi!
Also, I think Lieberman will win CT, unfortunately, and I have grave doubts about whether he will caucus with the Dems or become Secretary of Defense (thus giving his CT seat to the GOP).
Gay marriage amendments pass in Arizona, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee. Fails in: Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
South Dakota strikes down their abortion ban.
And Dems take a majority of the governorships, with pickups in AR, CO, MA, MD, MN, NY, and OH.
Not a single congressional or gubernatorial Dem incumbent loses.