Since I’m working for the Clinton campaign, I can’t comment on the Democratic primary, but I must point out what I think is a blatantly idiotic move on the Republican side.
John McCain ended 2007 with $4.5 million in debt, hampering his ability to capitalize on his SC/FL momentum by advertising in Super Tuesday states. But, Mitt Romney and his $200 million net worth should not have money woes. Yet, he is not advertising in Super Tuesday states! In many cases, politicians spending their own money is a terrible decision because they often get such low return on their dollars. (True, money and votes are often correlated, but I think that reflects that the ability to raise money is correlated with the ability to attract voters.) In high-information races (e.g., Governor, Senate, and President) political realities often trump personal wealth (viz: Steve Grossman in MA-Gov, Steve Forbes for Pres.).
However, Super Tuesday presents a unique opportunity for Romney. On, Tuesday of this week, the AP reported that neither Romney nor McCain had bought paid media for 2/5. That day, I began discussing this oddity with politico friends, who also found it odd, especially since Romney should be able to afford these advertisements. Simply put, he missed a huge opportunity to have the airwaves to himself in these crucial states. While political advertising can often be ineffective, especially in television markets inundated with paid media, being the only candidate on the air can be very beneficial. One need only look to Bush’s flipping of West Virginia from Blue to Red in 2000 when his commercials went uncontested for (approx.) two weeks to see the power to television in politics.
Perhaps Romney thinks that McCain won’t go on the air at all and he can consolidate his uncontested ad buy in the final days. But now he’s let multiple pro-McCain news cycles (Florida, Rudy endorsement, etc.) proceed unabated, and I have no doubt that McCain has generated much-needed support (both in votes and cash) over this last week. When the Romney ad buy finally goes up, he might find the airwaves a bit more crowded than he expected. An additional investment of $20 million probably would have secured the nomination for Romney, and no matter what business you’re in, that’s a great rate of return.